The loss in the US Open final was a tough pill to swallow for Jannik Sinner – probably even more than the French Open final, where he was the better player for most of the match. Indeed, despite holding three consecutive match points in the fourth set in Paris but eventually surrendering to a pitch-perfect Carlos Alcaraz, who once again showed he was the true King of Clay, on hard courts things had remained in Sinner’s favour.

Indeed, not only are hard courts Sinner’s best surface, but he was also the defending champion in New York. In that context, it made sense that many people – including bookmakers, who made Sinner the slight favourite – expected the Italian to defend his title despite Alcaraz’s dream run.

Instead, he failed to do so. Sinner suffered one of his worst defeats in recent years, falling 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4 and after 65 weeks, Sinner lost his world #1 ranking as Alcaraz overtook him. Despite the three-month ban that forced the Italian to withdraw from four Masters 1000 events (Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo and Madrid) – meaning he couldn’t collect any points – Alcaraz’s rise to the top still feels fair, as he has been the best player overall in 2025. But what may be more concerning for Sinner is what comes next.

A troubling trend?

The win in New York extended the Spaniard’s lead in the head-to-head against Sinner. He now leads 10-5 — or 11-5 if we include their Challenger match in 2019. However, their surface-by-surface record is more revealing.

As the French Open and Wimbledon finals reflected, Alcaraz leads on clay (3-1), while Sinner leads on grass (2-0). But it’s on hard courts where the gap is most striking. Of the nine matches they’ve played there, Alcaraz has won seven and Sinner only two. This is surprising, especially considering that heading into the 2025 US Open, Sinner had won the previous three hard-court Grand Slams, while Alcaraz hadn’t reached a single final since winning his very first Major title at the 2022 US Open.

In those nine matches, Sinner got the better of Alcaraz in Miami and Beijing, both in 2023. But he lost in Paris-Bercy 2021, at Indian Wells 2023, and in the aforementioned US Open, where he had a match point in the fourth set but lost in five – a similar situation to this year’s French Open final. Even worse, he has lost his last four meetings with Alcaraz on hard courts: Indian Wells 2024, Beijing 2024, Cincinnati 2025 (where he retired after five games, but it still counts), and the US Open 2025.

That record makes the rivalry look one-sided – maybe even too much to truly call it a rivalry. But numbers don’t tell the whole story, and Sinner shouldn’t be intimidated by them for several reasons. First, two of those losses came after missed match points (US Open 2022, French Open 2025). Of course, history isn’t written in “what ifs,” but that does just how close their matches have been. Another interesting stat: across their 15 career meetings, only six points separate them (1579 to 1573).

How is that possible? Well tennis is a sport of very fine margins whoever is playing. Moreover, Sinner has won five sets by 6-1, while Alcaraz has only two. They have also played 13 tiebreaks, with Alcaraz leading 8-5, meaning he’s been better under pressure, but also that many of their matches have been decided by a few key points.

Sinner’s Consistency Against the Field

What should reassure Sinner, however, is that if he has faced Alcaraz only 11 times in the last three seasons, it’s largely because of Alcaraz. Why? Because in tournaments where they both competed but didn’t meet, Sinner often outperformed him.

The most recent example is the 2025 Australian Open, where Sinner won the title and Alcaraz lost in the quarters. Looking at the 2024 season, and considering only the tournaments where they didn’t face each other, Sinner went further than Alcaraz in six out of seven events (the only exception was Wimbledon). Across the past three seasons, Sinner has done better in 11 tournaments, while Alcaraz outperformed him only five times.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Sinner would have beaten Alcaraz in all those events, but it does raise the question: if Alcaraz struggled against lower-ranked opponents, would he really have been able to stop Sinner in those situations?

The Key for Sinner

The matchup between Sinner and Alcaraz is — and likely will remain — slightly in Alcaraz’s favour, as his style of play is well suited to challenge Sinner’s strengths. So it wouldn’t be surprising if, in the coming years, Alcaraz continues to beat Sinner, even if he drops in the rankings.

Something similar happened in the past between Federer and Nadal, with Nadal being the only consistent threat to Federer during his peak. The 2006 season is a perfect example: Federer won 92 matches and lost just five — four of them to Nadal.

If Alcaraz maintains the consistency he’s shown in 2025, then maybe Sinner should be worried, especially since they’ve played five finals and Carlos has won four.

But the most important thing for Sinner is to keep focusing on himself. After all, he and Alcaraz are in the rankings penthouse, meaning they can only meet in finals. And if Alcaraz doesn’t make it there — as has happened several times in the past — Sinner’s superior consistency against the rest of the field allows him to win big titles without having to worry about facing Alcaraz at every tournament.