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2025 Valero Texas Open predictions, betting picks: Jordan Spieth among longshots to target at TPC San Antonio

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The week before a major often features a PGA Tour field that’s missing some of the biggest stars in the sport. However, that can create an opportunity for golfers few expected to emerge victorious, and for longshot bettors, there’s a chance to find value there. The 2025 Valero Texas Open tees off from TPC San Antonio on Thursday, April 3, with the Masters following a week later. None of the last three Valero Texas Open winners entered with more than one previous PGA Tour victory, making it truly a tournament anyone can win.

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Ludvig Aberg is the 12-1 favorite (bet $100 to win $1,200) in the latest 2025 Valero Texas Open odds, followed by Tommy Fleetwood (14-1), Corey Conners (18-1), Patrick Cantlay (20-1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20-1). Four of those five golfers have multiple PGA Tour victories, while Fleetwood is still searching for his first win on tour. Can Fleetwood finally break through this week, or will a longshot finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2025 Valero Texas Open? Akshay Bhatia, who’s seeking to become the fifth player to win back-to-back years at the Valero Texas Open, is a 28-1 longshot to repeat.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

Now that the 2025 Valero Texas Open field is locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and revealed its longshot betting picks:

Jordan Spieth (22-1 at FanDuel)

Spieth had one of the biggest reliefs of his career at the Valero Texas Open in 2021 when he won his first tournament in nearly four years. That was an extremely difficult stretch for one of the most well-known names in golf, and it was one of the biggest surprises in the sport as Spieth won three tournaments in 2017 before going on the elongated winless streak. Spieth, who has 13 career PGA Tour wins, has made the cut in five of six tournaments this season, including two top-10 results.

The Texas native finished 10th in last year’s Valero Texas Open for his fourth top-10 result over his last six events at TPC San Antonio. He’s made the cut in seven of eight career Valero Texas Open events. The 31-year-old ranks 44th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, which isn’t stellar, but it’s significantly better than his 80th ranking last year. Given Spieth’s career success at TPC San Antonio, the model projects value this weekend. FanDuel Sportsbook has Spieth priced at 22-1 odds.

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Paige Spiranac’s surprising NFL fandom confession triggers heated debate over loyalty, authenticity, and fan culture

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The 2026 NFL Draft starts Thursday night in Pittsburgh, and the spotlight isn’t only on prospects and front offices. Golf influencer Paige Spiranac has again found herself pulled into NFL conversation, this time for her open support of multiple teams.

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With the Steelers hosting the first round, her long-standing connection to Pittsburgh has resurfaced. But it’s not just about hometown ties. Her broader fandom, which stretches beyond one franchise, continues to draw mixed reactions at a time when fan loyalty is often treated as non-negotiable.

Paige Spiranac roots for 2 NFL teams: Who are they?

Paige Spiranac has never hidden where her loyalties lie, even if they don’t fit the usual mold. She has consistently pointed to her roots while leaving space for other allegiances.

“Both my parents are from Pittsburgh so I’ve been a Steelers ..fan since the day I was born. I also love the Bills. It’s a complicated relationship…Who’s your team?” she previously asked her followers. It’s a candid admission, one that reflects personal history more than calculated fandom.

Still, the reaction has been sharp. NFL culture tends to rew ..

 

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Quiet moments on the course can say a lot about what’s coming next.

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Sometimes the most important work happens when nobody is really watching.
Lexi Thompson was out on the 18th green, working through her putting during a practice round ahead of the Chevron Championship in Houston.

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It’s a simple scene, but it shows the kind of quiet preparation that goes into these big tournaments—getting the feel of the greens, adjusting to conditions, and building trust in every stroke.

These are the small details that can shape how a player starts when the pressure kicks in.

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Predicting what will happen to Bryson DeChambeau and Phil Mickelson if LIV Golf collapses

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It looks like LIV Golf is over.

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The Saudi Public Investment Fund has reportedly decided that this league simply isn’t worth the hole it’s burning in their pocket, and they’re pulling funds at the end of 2026.

That gives them less than a year to seek new investment. While CEO Scott O’Neil seems confident, it’s going to be extremely difficult to secure funding for a league that is operating at such eye-watering losses.

So this probably pulls the curtain closed on one of the most turbulent, frustrating, confusing, and ridiculous eras in golfing history. Hopefully, we can all return to some reality after the year is over.

But there is still so much uncertainty surrounding golf’s future thanks to this. Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed saw the signs early and jumped ship, but they did that with some leverage. So what on earth is going to happen to the rest of these players who didn’t take the olive branch when it was offered to them?

Feelings will be hurt, and careers will be ended. Let’s take a look.

Jon Rahm rejoins the PGA Tour

Koepka returned to the PGA Tour under the returning member program, which saw him pay $5 million to charity, accept that he’ll receive no FedEx Cup bonus money, and agree he cannot be a sponsor exemption for the 2026 signature events.

 

That same deal was offered to Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau. They didn’t accept it, but a similar offer will likely be handed out to them again.

 

If LIV Golf folds, Rahm will not hold the same leverage as Koepka did, but he is a bigger star at this stage of his career. Make no mistake, the PGA Tour will want him back immediately.

But Rahm does risk leaving himself without any options at all. Reed didn’t come straight back to the PGA Tour, so he’s spending a year on the DP World Tour first. You’d imagine Rahm would consider doing the same, but it might not be so easy for him.

Rahm is in a feud with the DP World Tour, as the only one of eight players to reject a deal which would have seen him retain his full-time membership. If Rahm agreed to play in six DP World Tour events this year, then he could have played on both LIV Golf and the tour. He did not agree.

For now, his membership is at risk. So, will it be possible for him to spend a season on the DP World Tour like Reed? Maybe not. That makes it all the more likely that Rahm will be back on the PGA Tour the moment LIV folds.

Bryson DeChambeau does YouTube full-time

With DeChambeau, I don’t think it’s as much of a done deal that he returns to the PGA Tour. Not immediately anyway.

He’s been negotiating his contract with LIV, which expires at the end of this season. During these negotiations, he’s made it very clear that he is completely willing to step away from full-time competition and be a full-time YouTuber.

DeChambeau’s channel has over two million subscribers, so he could feasibly do that with all of the money he’s making there.

He was annoyed to see LIV move to a four-day format, so he could commit himself fully to being the content king. It would be a wild thing to do, but it’s also exactly the kind of move you could see the two-time major winner making.

He could qualify for The Open Championship and the US Open, and earn enough points there to play The Masters and the PGA Championship. It’s possible.

He does seem to live for competition, so maybe YouTube won’t quite scratch the itch, but it is on the table for DeChambeau. At least for a year until his suspension expires. Out of Rahm and DeChambeau, the American is absolutely the least likely to take a deal.

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